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Vegas Golden Knights Conn Smythe Watch: Thoughts and Pre-Series Predictions

Posted on by Tom Urtz Jr.
NHL.com

The Stanley Cup Final officially gets underway Saturday at 5 p.m. with the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers each four wins away from winning their first championship in team history. The Stanley Cup is not the only piece of hardware that will be awarded upon the completion of the series, as a group of voters will select the MVP of the playoffs who will then hoist the Conn Smythe Trophy.

Both teams have a number of worthy candidates. but we’re only going to focus on the ones you all care about. With that said, here’s who we think are in the running to be crowned the most valuable player of the 2022-23 NHL Playoffs.

Tom’s Front Runner: Jonathan Marchessault

Truth be told, as fantastic as Jack Eichel has been, and as steady Adin Hill has been in a situation he never thought he’d end up in… I feel like Original Misfit Jonny Hockey has been the team’s most important player so far. Marchessault is 2nd in points with 17, 2nd in goals with 8, and a leader for the team in a number of key metrics.

In 5-on-5 situations, Marchessault is sporting a 78.01 GF% (1st), a 51.57 CF% (1st), and a 60.74 xGF% (1st) per Evolving-Hockey. The Golden Knights have 4.42 goals for per 60 and just 1.25 goals against per 60 when he’s on the ice. They also have 3.36 expected goals for and 2.17 against per 60, which is still a fantastic ratio. He’s part of a very efficient line that also includes Eichel, and trade deadline acquisition Ivan Barbashev.

Awards often go to star players, and while I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eichel get the nod if he continues to play the way he has, Marchessault is the one who’s most deserving at this point in time.

Jillian’s Front Runner: William Karlsson

At this point, it’s difficult to choose an overall favorite considering the Golden Knights win by committee and have relied on their depth all season. It’s no coincidence that the Golden Knights have six players with at least 14 points and six goals this postseason (Florida has three and four, respectively).

But it’s William Karlsson who leads the Golden Knights with 10 goals, which set a franchise record for the most in a postseason. He has 14 points in 17 games, leads the team (and all players with at least 90 minutes of ice time) in 5-on-5 goals per 60 (2.19) and has scored at least once in all three series-clinching wins.

But his contributions have gone so much deeper than his production.

He has been a defensive stalwart, taking on the most difficult matchups in all three rounds and keeping star players in check. At 5-on-5, the Golden Knights have outscored opponents 14-5 with Karlsson on the ice, and he’s been out there for no more than two 5-on-5 goals per series. He is second on the team with 4.66 takeaways per 60, trailing only Mark Stone (4.74).

Karlsson has played a pivotal role in every round.

He recorded four goals and five points in five games against Winnipeg, held Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to zero 5-on-5 goals in six games in the second round and then exploded for five goals and six points in six games against Dallas.

The Original Misfit has been exceptional on both sides of the puck and is a huge reason why Vegas is back in the Stanley Cup Final.

Tom’s Runner Up: Adin Hill

Before diving into my runner up, I think that William Karlsson is a great choice, and someone who was neck and neck for me when it came time to think about a dark horse… more on that later. He’s been an impactful player, and someone who could get a good look if he has a monster series.

There are two starting goalies left, and both are currently No. 1 and No. 2 in key metrics as tracked by Evolving-Hockey. Through 11 games Hill has a GSAA (goals saved above average) of 9.8, and a GSAx (goals saved above expected) of 10.01 which are 2nd-best to Sergei Bobrovsky. In addition to that, Hill is currently sporting the best goals against average (2.07) and save percentage (.937) as tracked by NHL dot com.

Throughout the playoffs Hill has been dependable for Vegas, and he’s playing to a level that no one reasonably could have expected. If Vegas can get the job done, and Hill continues to play at the level he has… or even exceeds it, he’ll certainly get some serious consideration for the Conn Smythe. Jillian agrees with me, and I’ll let her go more in-depth now.

Jillian’s Runner Up: Adin Hill

If Bobrovsky continues to play lights-out hockey, the Golden Knights are going to need Hill to stand on his head. That’s what he’s been doing over the last 11 games, where he has saved more than 10 goals above expected.

Hill can be a true difference-maker.

There may be stretches in this series reminiscent of Game 5 against Dallas where Hill is facing a full onslaught. Though Vegas ultimately lost that game, the only reason it was close was the extraordinary play of Hill, who made countless 10-bell saves while under siege to give his team a chance to win.

That’s something he has done since taking over for Laurent Brossoit in the Edmonton series. He was outstanding in Game 6 against the Oilers, bouncing back from surrendering two early goals by stopping the next 38 shots, and he has a combined .968 save percentage in two series-clinching contests.

Hill has been the king of the “timely save.” Look no further than his sensational stop on Wyatt Johnston 30 seconds into overtime in Game 2 against the Stars.

Had he not made that save, the series would have been 1-1 going into Dallas; instead, it was 2-0, and an early Vegas goal led to Jamie Benn’s implosion in Game 3.

Hill’s save on Fredrik Olofsson in the final two minutes of regulation in Game 4 is another example.

Simply put, Hill has delivered. Time and time again.

His play in the Dallas series – where he recorded two shutouts – proved that he’s far more than just a “system” goalie benefiting from Bruce Cassidy’s structure. He was spectacular, and it’s the kind of goaltending the Golden Knights have not gotten in the postseason since the first three rounds of the 2018 playoffs.

Vegas will need Hill to be at the top of his game in the Final; if he delivers once again, he should be in contention for the award.

Tom’s Third Place: Jack Eichel

Eichel is a phenomenal player that’s very important to the Golden Knights. He leads the team in points (18) and assists (12), and is 4th on the team with 6 goals. In terms of underlying numbers, Eichel is 3rd on the team with a 58.19 xGF%, 4th with a 49.91 CF%, and 8th with a 71.23 GF%.

As I said earlier, the Conn Smythe usually goes to a star with name recognition, and when push comes to shove a strong Cup Final would help him bridge the gap to the point where his overall body of work is good enough. I am admittedly nitpicking a bit, but that’s only because I feel that if a forward gets this award, Marchessault has a slightly stronger case statistically, but as Jillian is about to point out, who deserves the award and who gets it can be much different things.

Jillian’s Third Place: Jack Eichel

Given everything that has happened throughout Eichel’s career, it’s especially impressive how he has elevated all areas of his game in his first taste of playoff hockey. He’s been building towards this moment all year, buying into Cassidy’s system and devoting himself to a 200-foot game.

He’s operating at more than a point-per-game pace with a team-high 18, is elite with the puck, has been relentless on both the forecheck and backcheck and has game-breaking ability. He’s due for some puck luck after going without a goal in the Dallas series, though that doesn’t mean he wasn’t a steady contributor, regardless of the outcome.

He willed Vegas to its third-period comeback in Game 2 after the Golden Knights had just 10 shots through 40 minutes, and his play in all three zones – including below the goal line – was noticeable throughout the series.

He’s able to create something out of nothing, wants the puck on his stick and wants to win.

He’s been too hesitant on the power play, where he’s collected five of his 18 points; otherwise, his game had everything else but the finish in the Dallas series. If he can convert on even a few of his many prime scoring opportunities, he could pull ahead of the pack.

The lights will never be brighter than they are now, and Eichel has shown no signs of backing down.

Tom’s Dark Horse: Mark Stone

Stone is the captain, and before the acquisition of Eichel was the big name forward brought to the desert. He’s going to get a lot of attention this series because of the job he is about to undertake in attempting to neutralize Matthew Tkachuk among others. Stone has also had some offensive moments of note, and if he has a strong overall series, I could see the narrative of his return being a thing, and his overall strong play buoying his candidacy.

Jillian’s Dark Horse: Chandler Stephenson

The Stone choice makes a lot of sense. The fact that he made his way back from back surgery, had one bad game and then transformed into the captain and leader that he has been throughout the postseason should not be underestimated. It wasn’t too long ago that some questioned whether he should even be in the lineup for Game 2 against the Jets. Needless to say, there has been no doubt about his game since then, even though he’s taken a beating with targeted cross-checks along the way. He plays a major role in all aspects of the game, and he certainly could score some big goals in the Final.

But for the sake of adding more names to the conversation, it’s possible Stone’s linemate could make a push for MVP honors.

Stephenson is third on the team with eight goals and is tied for fifth with 14 points. He played a key role early in Vegas’ postseason run; in fact, he recorded multi-point efforts in four consecutive games as the Golden Knights dispatched the Jets in five. He potted the overtime tally in Game 2 against Dallas and is tied for first on the club with three game-winning goals.

Stephenson has the potential to take over a game and knows what it takes to win. His speed is a game-changing asset, and he could go on a tear if he gets hot.

Tom’s Prediction: Jack Eichel

Vegas is a town full of bright lights and showmanship, and that’s who Eichel is. This series has the chance to be a career highlight for him, and the culmination of a road of uncertainty that began with experimental neck surgery after joining the team in a blockbuster trade. On a number of levels he is leading or near the leaders in key categories, and has the name recognition.

Tom’s Vote: Jonathan Marchessault

I’ve been very impressed with the Original Misfit, and feel that there will be some extra motivation in going against his former squad which could help enhance his case. I think that he’s been a great contributor that’s had big moments, and I think it would be a great reward for him.

Jillian’s Prediction: Jack Eichel

It’s unlikely any one player will carry the Golden Knights, and voters tend to favor marquee players. Let’s face it: Eichel winning the Conn Smythe is a story that would write itself, and he has evolved into an all-around force and the franchise center Vegas hoped he’d be.

Jillian’s Vote: William Karlsson

He’s been too important. Period.

Honorable mention goes to Bruce Cassidy, who would be on my short list if coaches could win the award. He remains my 2022-23 Golden Knights MVP.

Tom’s Final Thoughts

The Golden Knights are in a great spot and have a lot of key players pushing in the right direction making significant contributions. For an award like this it is hard to get “mad” about who wins or doesn’t, because if someone on the Golden Knights win it means they’ve won the Cup… unless something incredible happened in a loss ala J.S. Giguere during the 2003 Final.

I didn’t have Karlsson in my top three, but Jillian did and I think that’s a very smart choice by her. Karlsson’s a player who made an instant impact upon joining the Golden Knights, and ever since then he’s seen his regular season production decline. Some of that is regression, some of that is systematic of the Golden Knights knack of having contributions by committee, but this year he was better overall.

With that said, he does have 10 goals in 17 playoff games which is super impressive considering he had just 14 in 82 regular season games. His playoff run reminds me a bit of Marian Gaborik’s with the Los Angeles Kings in 2013-14, and if that continues he’ll have a great chance of hoisting the Stanley Cup

I am pretty confident in terms of the players who are on the radar, and think it should be a great series where the names we talked about will get a chance to show what they can do to an even bigger audience.

Jillian’s Final Thoughts

To not have Marchessault on my list is criminal. He has been clutch, he has been critical, he’s an Original Misfit and he has been the “Little Engine That Could” for this team for a long time. He has a knack for scoring massive goals, and he leads the team in most possession-based metrics. Once the dam broke and he finally scored in Game 3 against the Oilers, he was off to the races; he hasn’t slowed down since.

In actuality, Marchessault is in my top-3 as far as who I believe deserves the award, and I think he’ll have a big series against his former team.

However, I think Eichel is the more likely recipient considering he has the name recognition and because he’s centering the team’s most productive line.

One thing that’s interesting to note is that Alex Ovechkin is the only winger who has won the Conn Smythe in the last eight years, and just three of the last 22 recipients have been wingers (Ovechkin in 2018, Justin Williams in 2014 and Patrick Kane in 2013).

Ultimately, Eichel already seems favored going into this series, even if other forwards have played more significant roles.

Who do you think has the best shot at being considered for the Conn Smythe? Do you agree with our picks, or is there someone we completely overlooked? We’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

Talking Points