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Checking in on the Conn Smythe race ahead of Game 5

Posted on by Jillian Wagner

The Vegas Golden Knights and Florida Panthers are gearing up for an intense Game 5 battle in what will be the first elimination game of the championship series.

All that’s on the line is the Stanley Cup and a place in history.

Childhood dreams and life-long pursuits.

The ultimate bond that can never be broken.

But there will be another piece of hardware handed out before captain Mark Stone (or Aleksander Barkov) has a chance to take the true prize for a skate.

That other hardware is the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the MVP of the playoffs as voted on by the media.

Prior to this series, Knights On Ice discussed the Conn Smythe race through three rounds and made predictions.

Knights On Ice Conn Smythe Watch Thoughts and Predictions
After the Stanley Cup Final, a group of voters will select the Conn Smythe Trophy winner as MVP of the playoffs. Here’s who we think could win.
Knights On IceTom Urtz Jr.

After four games of the Stanley Cup Final, most of the same names are involved, but the field has narrowed.

If Florida goes on to win three straight to pull off the ultimate comeback, the Conn Smythe likely will go to Sergei Bobrovsky or Matthew Tkachuk.

If the Golden Knights win, it seems to be a two-man race, unless something miraculous happens tonight or in subsequent games.

That two-man race is between Jonathan Marchessault and Adin Hill.

That doesn’t mean other players aren’t in the running or don’t deserve to be recognized for their contributions, but those two have emerged as the most likely recipients.

Here’s an updated look at the Conn Smythe Trophy race ahead of Game 5.

Frontrunners

Jonathan Marchessault

Marchessault was held two two assists and zero goals through the first seven games of the postseason. That includes the Winnipeg series in its entirety as well as the first two games of the Edmonton matchup.

From there, however, Marchessault caught fire, and his flame has not been extinguished since.

He has scored 13 goals in his last 14 games and is tied for first (with Roope Hintz and Tkachuk) in playoff scoring with 24 points. That is a Vegas record, as are his 13 goals, which are tied with Leon Draisaitl for first in the NHL.

Marchessault currently is riding a nine-game point streak – both the longest among all players this postseason as well as in franchise history – during which he has collected eight goals and 14 points.

He has three game-winning goals and leads all players with 18 even-strength points.

He scored a critical response goal in the first period of Game 3 against the Oilers, lighting the lamp 1:59 after the Oilers took an early 1-0 lead. He recorded three assists in Game 5 and scored a natural hat trick in the second period of the series-clinching Game 6 victory.

Marchessault recorded seven points in six games against the Stars, finding the scoresheet in five straight after going pointless in the opening matchup of the series. Notably, he scored the game-winning goal 1:11 into Game 3, which contributed to Jamie Benn’s infamous implosion.

Marchessault then scored two goals and four points in the final three games of the Western Conferene Final, including a goal in Vegas’ blowout win in Game 6.

But Marchessault has found a new gear in the Stanley Cup Final against his former team.

In the last four games, Marchessault has four goals and seven points, including three power-play goals. He also tallied a secondary helper on William Karlsson’s game-winner in Game 4, helping to bring the Golden Knights within one win of the Stanley Cup.

The Original Misfit has been Mr. Clutch for the Golden Knights, following through on his trademark of scoring big goals and stepping up in big moments. Though only one winger (Alex Ovechkin) has won the Conn Smythe in the last eight years, Marchessault could buck the trend.

Adin Hill

Hill has been playing MVP hockey since taking over for Laurent Brossoit in Game 3 of the second-round series against the Oilers. Though he didn’t play against Winnipeg, he’s very much a top contender for this award given how significant his contributions have been to the Golden Knights’ success.

His save percentage of .934 entering tonight’s game is the best in NHL history among goalies with at least 15 playoff games.

Hill was solid all year for the Golden Knights, but his play has reached new heights throughout the postseason. The fact that he has been able to elevate his game to such an extent, especially after missing two months of action with an injury, is remarkable.

He has given his team a chance to win every time he has patrolled the crease, and nothing has been able to rattle him.

Hill has made countless timely saves as well as game-saving stops, including what will go down in Vegas lore as “The Save” on Nick Cousins in Game 1 of the Final.

He was particularly stellar in Game 6 against Edmonton – stopping 38 straight shots after giving up two goals on the first two shots of the game – as well as in 5 against Dallas (despite taking the loss).

Hill is 10-4 with a 2.11 goals-against average and .934 save percentage in 13 starts. His 2.11 goals-against average is third among all goaltenders with at least five games, trailing only Frederik Andersen (1.83) and Igor Shesterkin (1.96). However, Hill has played six and eight more games, respectively.

He leads all goalies with 11.9 goals saved above average and is second behind Bobrovsky (22.25) with 13.61 goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey.

Hill has a combined .968 save percentage in two series-clinching contests and will look to help the Golden Knights finish the job tonight against the Panthers.

Also in consideration

Jack Eichel

Eichel seemed to be a true favorite for the Conn Smythe heading into the Final, though his standing has dropped a bit over the last four games. However, that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been contributing.

He is third among active players (fourth overall) with 23 points in 21 games, trailing Marchessault and Tkachuk (as well as Hintz), who all have 24. Eichel is tied for third with 15 even-strength points, and his 23 points are the third-most in NHL history by a player in his first postseason.

That being said, the last time Eichel scored a goal was Game 5 in the Edmonton series, meaning he has gone the last 11 games without finding twine. He’s still producing, with 10 assists in that span, but he hasn’t been as much of a game-breaker in recent games.

Even so, on his first shift after returning from Tkachuk’s crushing hit in Game 2, Eichel had a potentially career-defining moment when he won a battle along the boards and then found Marchessault alone in the slot. The goal stole all the momentum back from Florida and helped the Golden Knights go on to secure a 7-2 win to take a 2-0 series lead.

Eichel has five assists in four games against Florida, has recorded a point in 14 out of 21 playoff games and hasn’t gone more than one game without a point all postseason.

Vegas has outscored the opposition 18-7 with Eichel on the ice (at 5-on-5), and Eichel has been extremely effective in all three zones thanks to his 200-foot game. Though Marchessault’s possession numbers are slightly better in most categories, Eichel arguably has had a larger role given his additional defensive responsibilities at center; he has led all Vegas forwards in average ice time (19:07).

Mark Stone

Stone has been quite a story for the Golden Knights this postseason.

He missed the final 39 games of the regular season with his second back surgery in under a year after sustaining an injury against (ironically) the Florida Panthers in early January. The Golden Knights’ power play fell apart in his absence, and his postseason availability was in doubt.

His surprising return for the start of the playoffs allowed Bruce Cassidy to spread out Vegas’ offense and create three true scoring lines, and it also provided a significant emotional boost to the team. After a rough initial outing in Game 1 against Winnipeg, Stone bounced back with a three-point effort in Game 2 and has been a critical component of Vegas’ success ever since.

He has made some exceptional plays, leads all players with 28 takeaways and has 21 points in 21 postseason games, good for third on the team and fifth overall.

He is fourth on the Golden Knights with eight goals, leads the club with four power-play tallies and is second behind Eichel in ice time with an average of 19:01 per game. Plus, Stone is the Golden Knights’ emotional leader on and off the ice.

For someone whose offense dried up in Vegas’ 2020-21 run (eight points in 19 games), Stone has scored big goals and made critical plays for the Golden Knights this postseason. He has recorded a point in all four games of the Final, totaling two goals and six points; he and Chandler Stephenson combined for two goals in Game 4 to bring the Golden Knights within one win of the Stanley Cup.

Interestingly, the team captain has won the Conn Smythe only six times since 2000: Ovechkin (2018), Sidney Crosby (2016, 2017), Jonathan Toews (2010), Scott Niedermayer (2007) and Scott Stevens (2000).

William Karlsson

Karlsson was a true contender for the Conn Smythe coming into the Stanley Cup Final, and while he still deserves recognition for his invaluable contributions throughout Vegas’ postseason run, his chances have dropped considerably over the course of the last four games.

The Karlsson line has been Vegas’ only regular line with a Corsi share above 50 percent (54.43 percent), has maintained the highest expected goal share (60.86 percent) and has not given up a goal in this series.

However, Karlsson hasn’t been nearly as involved defensively or offensively. In the first three rounds, Karlsson played the role of shutdown center, going up against and neutralizing the best players on the Jets, Oilers and Stars. He did so much damage in the Edmonton series that Oilers bench boss Jay Woodcroft kept Connor McDavid on the bench when Karlsson was on the ice. The Golden Knights have outscored opponents 16-5 with Karlsson on the ice, including 2-0 in this series.

But defensive responsibilities have been more spread out against Florida, taking some of the spotlight off Karlsson’s incredible performance. He scored his first goal of the series in Game 4, though it proved to be the game-winner. However, he has just two points in the Final.

That being said, he is second on the Golden Knights and tied for third among all players with 11 goals. He scored four goals in the five-game series against Winnipeg, held McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to zero goals at 5-on-5 in six games in the second round and then had a five-goal outburst against Dallas, including two goals in Game 1 and two goals (as well as an assist) in Game 6. He has scored a goal in all three elimination games and has a total of four goals and five points in those contests.

Though he’s likely out of the running for the Conn Smythe, he played a crucial role to help the Golden Knights get to this point; if Vegas ends up hoisting the Cup, Karlsson will be a huge reason why.

Chandler Stephenson

Stephenson is third on the team (and tied for fifth overall) with 10 goals, and he is fourth in scoring with 19 points (seventh overall, fifth among active players). He is tied with Marchessault for the team lead with three game-winning goals, one of which was the overtime game-winner in Game 2 against Dallas.

He scored two goals in Vegas’ series-clinching Game 5 win against the Jets, including just 50 seconds into the game.

Stephenson has recorded seven multi-point efforts, including in Games 2-5 in the Winnipeg series, Game 2 against Dallas and Games 2 and 4 in the Stanley Cup Final. His two goals in Game 4 helped the Golden Knights pull within one win of the Stanley Cup, which he won with the Capitals five years ago at T-Mobile Arena.

Stephenson is unlikely to move ahead of Marchessault and Hill (and Eichel, for that matter), but he has been a standout performer for the Golden Knights throughout the playoffs.

If Florida wins

Sergei Bobrovsky

Bobrovsky was sensational in the third round against Carolina, going 4-0 with a 1.12 goals-against average and .966 save percentage.

He stole Game 3 of this series to prevent the Panthers from falling into a 3-0 hole, and he had another strong performance in Game 4 despite losing 3-2.

Bobrovsky has gone 12-5 with a 2.50 goals-against average and .924 save percentage since taking over for Alex Lyon as Florida’s starter. He leads all goalies by a drastic margin with 22.25 goals saved above expected.

Matthew Tkachuk

Tkachuk has played the hero for the Panthers throughout the postseason, scoring huge goals at every stage. He scored two overtime game-winning goals in the Carolina series as well as the series-clinching goal with under five seconds remaining in regulation in Game 4.

Tkachuk scored the late equalizer in Game 3 against Vegas to force overtime in what became the franchise’s first Stanley Cup win. Tkachuk has recorded four game-winning goals, is tied with Marchessault and Hintz for the league lead in scoring with 24 points and is tied (with Karlsson) for second among active players with 11 goals.

He was limited to just 16:40 in Game 4 due to an injury, and did not practice ahead of Game 5. If he’s able to play a role of some kind in a comeback, it would only add to the amazing year he’s had since leaving Calgary.

Honorable mention

Carter Verhaghe has four game-winning goals and 17 points this postseason. He scored the game-winning goal in overtime of Game 3 in this series and could take on a larger role if the Panthers extend this series and Tkachuk continues to be limited by his undisclosed injury.

Final Thoughts

Jillian

My vote after three rounds was for Karlsson, and I stand by that vote today; I believe he was Vegas’ most valuable player through three rounds. However, the Conn Smythe is about more than the first three rounds, and Karlsson’s role has diminished over the last four games. I originally predicted that Eichel would get the award because of his raw production, name recognition and position as a center; while that’s still possible, he hasn’t scored in 11 games and hasn’t had nearly as much of an influence on the series as Marchessault, even if they skate on the same line.

It’s difficult to select one player on the Golden Knights since this is a team that wins by committee and relies on depth, with different players stepping up on any given night. One of those is Hill, who has been absolutely pivotal for the Golden Knights. But unless Hill stands on his head and has an unfathomable performance to clinch the Stanley Cup for Vegas (assuming the Golden Knights win tonight), Marchessault seems destined to be awarded Playoff MVP honors.

He has four goals and seven points in the Stanley Cup Final, is in the midst of a nine-game point streak, is tied for first in goals and points and is an Original Misfit (that doesn’t actually count, but it could help offset voters’ bias against wingers, and it does add to the narrative). If Hill has his best game of the playoffs, he could sway some late votes, but given the production and the clutch value Marchessault has provided, it’s his award to lose.

Tom

From the beginning I was pulling for Jonathan Marchessault. He had a great story being an undrafted NHL player, an Original Misfit, and winning the Conn Smythe would have meant he showed out vs. his former team the Florida Panthers. So far he’s kept the pace and lived up to my initial prediction, and arguably created distance for himself between the rest of the skaters on the roster. As Jillian has pointed out, he’s on a nine-game point streak and has come up big in the Final thus far, and done enough to steal the shine away from Jack Eichel who entered this series as the team’s most high profile player. I truly thought that Marchessault would get overlooked if Eichel were able to keep things close, but I think that’s come and gone… barring a hat trick by Jack that clinches the Cup for Vegas.

That said, I feel the only way that Marchessault isn’t rewarded is if Hill has another monster game that serves as a reminder of just how impactful he’s been since entering the crease for an injured Laurent Brossoit. What Hill has done to date is mightily impressive, especially considering how much had to go wrong for him to be in this spot. The Golden Knights knew they’d be without Robin Lehner entering this season. They were without Brossoit to start the year, Logan Thompson got hurt, and there was a brief period of time in which Michael Hutchinson was in the picture. Heck… the Golden Knights went out and added two-time Stanley Cup Champion Jonathan Quick for depth, and yet after all has been said and done… it’s Adin on the summit of the mountain within inches of claiming the big prize. He’s got a great shot, and if Vegas finishes this series off… I don’t think anyone will care if it’s Hill, Marchessault or anyone else for that matter because banners hang forever.

Talking Points